What This Does
With this tool you can create a betting line based on how you rate the participants of a
race. Be it speed ratings, weight, length of tail, whatever. This tool will generate odds based on the probability
created by each rating relative to the other ratings.
Track takeouts and 'dime breakage' is accounted for.
The adjusted odds get fuzzier the longer out the odds go.
Here's an example that illustrates this...
If I enter the win pools for a race at a track that has a 17% track takeout and adjust the odds to match the favorite's final odds
the results compare to the actual odds on the tote like this...
When comparing this tool's adjusted odds to the actual final odds of the race we see how the accuracy appears to
decrease as the odds get longer but actually all calculated odds are only less than 1% different when you look at the probabilities they represent. This is more exaggerated on longer odds.
The case where the 2.5 turned out to be a 2.4 in the tool was because it was actually 2.49 to 2.51 and the dime breakage brought it down to 2.5 and 2.4 (curse you breakage!) Keep this in mind when using the tool.
Suggestions For Use
Use your favorite handicapping techniques to derive a numerical score on each horse/dog in a race where the higher the score, the better the chances are for a win. Enter the track takeout, enter your scores and then enter the
odds that you want your best entry to have. Et voila!
Let's walk through an example.
I find myself utterly convinced that horses with long full tails win more often than their tiny tailed opponents. I get some inside data on the tails of the horses in an upcoming race.
Length, density, greasiness, uhhh... girth, whatever. I plug all of the data into my complex calculation and get a score for each of the horses in the race.
1 : 65
2 : 72
3 : 71
4 : 66
5 : 67
6 : 74
7 : 77
8 : 70
The track takeout for this race is 17% and I feel that my favorite in this race should pay even money so I
enter 1 in the 'Best Odds ADJ' box. If I thought he should be 5-2 I'd enter 2.5, if I thought he should be 2-1 I'd enter 2.
Here's a picture of my entries...
The odds for my favorite (the 7 horse with it's luscious tail) came out at 4.1 but adjusting the odds so that it
would be 1 makes the odds for all the horses look more like you would see in a real race.
IMPORTANT These are MY odds based on my tail system.
The odds on the tote board are based on the collective beliefs of the BETTORS
They are two completely different things. Especially since the bettors do not have my inside info on the
horse's tails Muhaahahahaha.
As post time approaches, I watch the tote and plug my numbers into my 'Measure Changes in the Win Odds' tool
(entering my tail odds in place of the morning line odds) and I see that the betting public
does not like my picks so I bet heavy to win on the 7 and a whole bunch of exotics convinced that I'll defeat their false
favorites.
Please feel free to send any comments or questions to me at herr-doktor@bukawow.com
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