What This Does
I originally wrote the Pari-mutuel Tote Watching Calculator for my own personal use. It augments my handicapping by giving me a clear picture of bettor sentiment
and helps to quickly determine the rewards for various levels of risk in wagers on a race right up to post time.
It says nothing about the race participants, be they horses or dogs or even pigs. It is all about what the people wagering believe about the race. With it, you can
watch for where the smart money is going or, more often, where the not so smart money is going. It allows you to quickly reassess the risks of your wagers when there are
last minute scratches or a change in track condition.
Suggestions For Use
The most basic use of this calculator is as follows...
1. Enter the Morning Line odds
2. Enter the current odds from the race's tote board
3. View the probability changes in the DIFF column.
The people who make the morning line odds are very good at their job these days. Always remember though, that their job is to determine the odds that the betting public will
choose for the race. They do not try to pick winners, they try to predict how people will bet the race. I am repeatedly amazed at how well they do this.
Sometimes things change between the release of the morning line and post time. Commonly this would be scratches or changes in weather but many other things can change also.
When the race is obviously different from what the odds maker expected then you can use the odds from a time like 20 minutes to post as your starting odds and then enter the current odds
at fifteen then ten then five then two minutes to post to see how the bettors are reacting to the new conditions. Just a few years ago, at tracks with large pools*, the odds would often change dramatically after the
race went off but technology is rapidly catching up with the volume of bets from simulcasting and most tracks (not all) are doing a better job of keeping the odds current. (* Tracks with small pools are too easily influenced by a
last minute $500 bet)
Another interesting use of this calculator is to monitor when a favorite falls out of favor with the public. The odds may look close but the actual probabilities may tell a different story
that can give you an advantage the next time they race in the form of an overlay or underlay. That is if you can determine why the public went sour on the favorite or if it was because something unusual happened with
one of its competitors.
Please feel free to send any comments or questions to me at herr-doktor@bukawow.com
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